The Revival of Jimmy Rollins

It's early in the baseball season. Much too early to draw any conclusions about performance. The baseball statistician will always warn: be careful of small sample sizes.

Still, what jumps out most about this early start for the Phillies is the play of Jimmy Rollins. He looks healthy. He looks as good as ever on defense. And most of all, he looks great swinging the bat. Rollins has revived his short, compact swing and has delivered with well-timed hits on grounders and line drives. It's exactly what Phillies fans have wanted from him for so long.

Hitting in the third slot in the order, Rollins is expected to be the centerpiece of the offense. While he hasn't had any extra-base hits yet, his presence with the lumber has been felt to the tune of a .500 batting average and a 1.071 OPS. While unsustainable, those are numbers that any lineup would take from their third hitter, even in short spurts.

So what is the reason for this surge? It very well might be the position in the order. But not just because Rollins has Ryan Howard batting behind him. Instead, it might be who is hitting in front of Rollins that is aiding his success. The Phillies have collectively been on base a lot early on, meaning Rollins has hit with men on base frequently. This shifts the defense, opens holes, and puts pressure on the opposing pitcher. It's something Rollins rarely had a chance to enjoy when he was leading off games.

Here's a look at Jimmy's first three games:

4/1 - Bases empty: 1-for-3, Men on base: 1-for-1

4/2 - Bases empty: 1-for-1, Men on base: 1-for-4, K

4/3 - Bases empty: 0-for-1, Men on base: 2-for-2, 2 BB

Again, small sample sizes. So it got me to thinking about Rollins' career numbers with men on base versus with no one on base. Clearly, most hitters will have more opportunities with the bases empty. But it is even more pronounced for a career-long lead-off hitter.

Still, here at the plate appearances and stats for Rollins in his career:

Bases Empty: 3912 PA, .262 BA,.312 OBP, .414 SLG, .282 BABIP, 6.5% BB, 12.6% K

Men on Base: 2228 PA, .291 BA, .358 OBP, .482 SLG, .299 BABIP, 9.2% BB, 11.5% K

As would be expected for any hitter, all of Rollins' stats improve with men on base. Not only is Rollins making more contact with more power when men are on base, but his plate discipline also receives a boost, especially in the walks category. Finally, and most importantly, the batting average of balls in play for Rollins with men on base is a very sustainable .299.

 

The early signs of this season, coupled with Rollins' career numbers, suggest that if he continues to have a contact approach, he can sustain his revival of solid production from the three hole in the Phillies lineup.

* Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com