Saturday, September 4, 2010

Best Pitcher in the NL East

Remember back in February when Roy Halladay was asked who the best pitcher in the NL East was? He was humble and mentioned a number of solid starters, such as Florida's Josh Johnson, his teammate Cole Hamels, and even New York's Johan Santana. In a word, Halladay was the essence of class.

One of his NL East counterparts was not. Johan Santana boldly proclaimed who he thought the best pitcher in the division was with a single word: "Santana." Usually the single-named person is reserved for the most accomplished of people, so initially, I was a little shocked that he thought musical great Carlos Santana had taken up pitching. But of course, what the Mets' pitcher really meant was himself.


Now that we are approaching the end of the regular season, I thought it would be fun to re-assess this position. And I didn't think it would be fair to analyze post-season performances, since Santana will, of course, not have any yet again. But looking back at the regular season thus far, who really is the best pitcher in the NL East?

I broke down the division's top five pitchers' (based on ERA+) season statistics in the following sabermetric categories*: IP, ERA+, FIP, WAR. Here's what I found (through September 3):

Josh Johnson: 177.2 IP, 182 ERA+, 2.50 FIP, 5.9 WAR
Roy Halladay: 214.0 IP, 182 ERA+, 2.79 FIP, 6.6 WAR
Tim Hudson: 191.2 IP, 175 ERA+, 3.75 FIP, 3.2 WAR
R.A. Dickey: 139.1 IP, 138 ERA+, 3.59 FIP, 2.6 WAR
Johan Santana: 157.2 IP, 121 ERA+, 3.56 FIP, 3.7 WAR

Just for argument's sake (and for fun), let's compare Santana's best statistical season with Halladay's projections this season, which statistically is not even his best season:

Santana (2004): 228.0 IP, 182 ERA+, 2.92 FIP, 7.7 WAR
Halladay (2010): 252.1 IP, 182 ERA+, 2.79 FIP, 7.7 WAR

This doesn't take things into account, such as the fact that Roy Halladay is a family man and wanted to move his family to a good community, and he even accepted less money to do so. This doesn't adjust for the fact that Roy Halladay threw a perfect game but gave all of the credit to his teammates. He even spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to honor them. Statistics don't tell the whole story, about a pitcher's work ethic or respect for the game.

Based on stats, there could be quite a debate about who the best pitcher in the division really is. This being a Phillies-based blog, I could argue with you night and day that Halladay is better than everyone else on that list, especially Santana. Heck, Johan might not even be the best pitcher named Santana. But truth be told, I think there's little argument about who the best pitcher is from a human standpoint. Roy Halladay's grace wins that honor over every other starter, including Johan Santana and his sexual exploits.

* Statistics compiled from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Learn more about sabermetrics there.

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